2025 Trade War Explained: Low Lows and High Fckn Highs

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The S&P 500 just gaped up a massive 9.5% in the biggest market rally since WW2. This trade war fiasco is getting absolutely mental. Trump decided to yap this afternoon and hit us with a 90-day tariff pause announcement, and boom - the Dow Jones jumped nearly 3,000 points while the Nasdaq blasted off 12.2% after being down over 10% the previous 4 trading days…

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But listen up gents, this isn’t all about the gains. World Trade Organization says this US-China tariff pissing match could gut trade between the two countries by 80%. Meanwhile, China slapped back with 84% tariffs on American shit, and the EU jumped in with 25% tariffs on €21 billion worth of US goods.

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We're about to break down what caused the markets to have a record sell-off, backed up by a record rally. History has been made this week the the people deserve to know what the fuck is going on!

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The "Oops I Fucked The Market" 90-Day Tariff Pause

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Trump dropped his tariff bombshell on April 9th like a drunk stepfather at Christmas dinner - totally unexpected and massively disruptive. After slapping some of the most aggressive trade barriers since the Great Depression, he pulled a complete 180 with a 90-day pause on his "reciprocal" tariffs for most countries. But China? Those fuckers got special treatment. Instead of a break, Trump cranked their tariff rate up to 125%. No spit, no lube, sandpaper finish.

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This epic flip-flop happened after markets took a shit so bad you'd think you think it had expired Taco Bell...During this magical 90-day pause window, most countries face a reduced 10% baseline tariff, though the steel, aluminum, and auto duties are staying put. Trump justified this clusterfuck by saying "more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States" seeking negotiations rather than retaliating. Meanwhile, China's getting bent right over. After they clapped back with 84% tariffs on American goods, Trump said fuck that and rebounded with a 125% rate.

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The White House claims this 90-day window will enable "bespoke" negotiations with dozens of countries. This pause is a complete 180 after Trump spent days pumping these tariffs as his golden ticket to reverse globalization.

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This isn’t Trump’s first Tariff pump fake; it’s his signature move at this rate, he’s like Rondo with his fake pass. He previously threatened Mexico and Canada with massive tariffs, which he later backed away from. Trump’s like the boy who cried wolf; he’s playing games with the global economy, and every time he opens that yap of his, the markets take a more unpredictable swing than John Daly after a fifth of Titos.

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He’s like a monkey with a hand grenade (maybe like 4 or 5 of them), and he’s throwing decoys left, right, and center.

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The Previous Shit-Show

Previous to today The market took a shit so spectacular you'd think it ate Taco Bell and Indian food on the same day. Before Trump's tariff pause, the S&P 500 bled $5.83 trillion in market value – the steepest four-day decline since WW2. At its lowest point, the index dropped below 5,000 for the first time in almost a year, nosediving nearly 19% from its February peak and entering bear market territory.
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Wall Street was shitting bricks. The VIX volatility index – what we traders call the "fear gauge" – spiked to 55, levels we haven't seen since COVID.

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Global markets got it even worse. The Hang Seng crashed a brutal 13.2% while Japan's TOPIX tumbled 7.8%. Most fucked up of all? The Taipei stock exchange suffered its largest single-day drop in history, forcing a trading halt in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

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Then came the reversal – Trump's tariff pause announcement triggered a market rebound so violent it gave everyone whiplash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 3,000 points while beaten-down sectors went absolutely apeshit:
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-          Delta Airlines soared 24%

-          United Airlines jumped 26%

-          Restoration Hardware skyrocketed almost 29%

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This volatility shows how trade policy is now the market's puppet master. One analyst put it perfectly: "What we're seeing now is a complete correlation between any news related to tariffs and the stock market reactions." No fucking kidding. CFO surveys show over 30% of companies now see trade and tariffs as their biggest business concern, up from just 8.3% last quarter.

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The Fuckin' Bottom Line

This market swing will go down in the history books. Trump's tariff pause triggered gains not seen since the 08 Crisis, but let's not kid ourselves - this economic clusterfuck is far from over.

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Markets have blown a load over this temporary tariff relief, but the long-term economic cancer is still spreading. Is this 90-day pause actually meaningful or just Trump giving the economy a reach-around before the real fucking? Who knows.

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One thing's crystal clear, though - the global economy is at a crossroad. Buckle up, gents - this rollercoaster's just getting started, and there ain't no safety bar.

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Not financial advice, this is all my opinion and all data is what I believe to be accurate, pulled from online public sources.

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