Short Report: What The Fuck Is Up With $NMAX

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‍I’m sure you’ve heard by now: Newsmax stock (ticker NMAX) just IPO’d at $10 a share on Monday and closed at $233 today.

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Yes, you read that right – it went public at ten bucks and two days later, it’s trading in the fckn hundreds.

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This isn’t a shitcoin, this is a NASDAQ-listed equity – up 1293% in the past 48 hours. As a Canadian and also as someone who doesn’t watch cable news, I had no idea what the fuck was going on here, but after doing minimal research I am about to tell you!

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WTF is NMAX?

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For the Canadians scratching their heads or the 2000–2010 born people reading this surprised cable TV is still a thing, here is $NMAX in a nutshell:

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$NMAX is a conservative cable news network – basically a Fox News wannabe catering to the right-wing crowd. In terms of size, it’s aight: roughly ~390,000 daily viewers, which ranks a distant fourth in U.S. cable news behind Fox, MSNBC, and CNN.

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Yes, fourth, as in barely on the podium – and far behind Fox’s millions. Newsmax gained some prominence during the Trump era, positioning itself as a Trump-friendly alternative when some on the right felt Fox News wasn’t loyal enough. It’s known for its diehard conservative audience and Trump-boosting hosts, but I didn’t come here to get all political with y’all, let’s get into the numbers…

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The Numbers:

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How does a niche channel catch the attention of all of Wall Street and rip to a 30B market cap in 48 hours? Beats us, because the financials are dog-water. In 2024, Newsmax pulled in about $171 million in revenue – and managed to still lose $64M

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In other words, Newsmax is losing money, not making it. They’ve been growing (2024 sales were up ~26%), but growth is coming off a small base. The business model is the usual mix: advertising dollars, cable carrier fees, and a fledgling subscription streaming service (Newsmax+ at $4.99/month). It’s not like they invented new tech or found gold – it’s a basic cable channel grinding for ad fees and eyeballs in a cord-cutting world.

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Not to mention they got in a little legal trouble last year. Newsmax just paid $40 million to settle a defamation lawsuit with voting-tech company Smartmatic.
(They’d aired 2020 election fraud claims.) So add that to the tab. Bottom line: this is not some profit-minting machine; it’s a niche media outlet that’s actually losing money and dealing with legal baggage.

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Valuation Reality Check

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Let’s talk valuation – because this is where shit doesn’t add up. After this generational rally, Newsmax’s market cap is about 30B. For context, here’s how NMAX stacks up against some real media players:

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- Fox News (Fox Corp parent) – ~around $25 billion market cap (3.1m daily viewers)

- The New York Times (NYT) – ~around $8 billion (an old-school, globally recognized media stalwart)

- Newsmax (NMAX) – now riding around $30 billion valuation (390k daily veiwers)

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Newsmax – with its 390k viewers and <$200M revenue – is somehow being valued above the New York Times and is in the same ballpark as fucking Fox Corp. It’s absurd. The stock market is essentially saying Newsmax is worth more than a century-old newspaper of record and more than the Fox empire.

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Just a Trump Pump

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So how on earth did NMAX shoot up like a crypto shitcoin? Pure hype and speculation. This rally has all the fingerprints of a meme-fueled pump driven by retail traders and political fanboys. The first trading day, Newsmax’s stock was so volatile it got halted six times as frenzied buyers piled in to snag a piece of the “Trump-friendly” outlet.

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It was literally the top trending ticker on Stocktwits (a social media site for traders) during the hype surge. In other words, the day-trading sluts swarmed this stock, likely egged on by conservative forums and Twitter accounts hyping Newsmax as the next big Trump play.

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We’ve seen this movie before. Remember the spikes in Rumble or Trump’s own SPAC for Truth Social? Those “patriot” stocks also skyrocketed on retail enthusiasm before reality set in. Newsmax is the same shit: a political/ideological fan investment. There’s talk that the enthusiasm is partly a middle finger to mainstream media and a celebration of Trump (who’s back in the political spotlight). Newsmax’s CEO literally said he talked to Trump about the IPO, gushing that “a rising Trump lifts all boats.” It This isn’t institutional investors carefully valuing cash flows – it’s retard power FOMO, turbocharged by political fandom.

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Opinion: A Generational Short Opportunity

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Now here is our take. In plain terms: $NMAX is wildly overvalued and looks like a generational short opportunity. The numbers just make no sense. A $30 billion tag for a company with a few hundred-thousand viewers in a dying space, with -$64M net income last year? Come on. Unless you truly believe Newsmax is about to 100x its audience or somehow dethrone Fox News, this valuation is completely detached from reality. More likely, this is a bubble inflated by the retail and hype.

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Sure, timing a short is tricky – we saw them get butthole-gaped on a couple of different meme stocks – but no one’s saying jump in front of this freight train today while it’s still turbocharged. But eventually, fundamentals matter. When the dust settles and the pumpers move on, I believe Newsmax’s stock is headed nowhere but down. Gravity is undefeated…

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In our view, NMAX isn’t just overvalued; it’s setting up for a nice short. The hype will fade, the stock will normalize (if not crash), and those who recognize this may stand to profit on the way down. In short: Newsmax’s run-up is a nothing burger and rational investors should be licking their chops, looking for some profits on the way down.

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This isn’t us saying go short today, or short at all, this is just for entertainment purposes. Shorting stocks is risky for many different reasons and there is no max loss – you can seriously lose a fuck ton of money if things go wrong. So whatever you do – do your own dd and come to your own conclusions. We currently don't have any short or long positions on $NMAX but we may do whatever the fuck we please at any given time.

Full disclaimer here – https://www.vhlamedia.com/terms-disclaimer

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