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America's Wood Crisis: Two Lumber Stocks Ready to Fucking Print

America's Wood Crisis: Two Lumber Stocks Ready to Fucking Print
Written by
Dawson Ignatieff
Dawson Ignatieff
Published on
March 24, 2025
Read time
5
 min read

America's Wood Crisis: Two Lumber Stocks Ready to Fucking Print

America needs houses - we're talking 3.2 to 6.5 million homes short. That's not a typo. This monster housing deficit isn't just some real estate headline - it's creating a lumber feeding frenzy that's got smart money circling around timber stocks like Micheal Jackson at a preschool.

Sure, lumber's chilling at $500 per thousand board feet right now, but here's the kicker: The wood processing market is about to go nuclear. We're looking at a 7.6% yearly growth that'll pump this bastard to $226.2 billion by 2025.

After diving deep into this lumber clusterfuck, we've found two absolute units positioned to print money faster than Jerome Powell on crack. These aren't your grandpa's timber plays - these bad boys are sitting on goldmines of wood when America needs it most.

Trust me, you'll want to see these tickers.

The Lumber Shitshow: Supply's Fucked, Demand's Mooning

Let's break down this lumber clusterfuck. Mother Nature's been playing demolition derby with America's forests - Hurricane Michael alone obliterated 6 million acres and 10 billion cubic feet of timber. These aren't just temporary setbacks - this shit destabilizes prices for decades.

Southeast Farmers Picking Up After Hurricane Michael Pours Down - Growing  Produce

But wait, it gets better.

Us Canadians are getting bent over with tariffs - currently 14.5%, but some genius wants to slap another 25% on top. Do the math - we're looking at 50%+ tariffs by fall 2025. Why does this matter? Because us Canadians supply 72% of USA's sawmill imports, worth a whopping $5.9 billion.

America's trying to pick up the slack, but their sawmills are about as prepared as a virgin on prom night. USA is desperately short on everything - loggers, truckers, mill workers - the whole fucking supply chain's running on fumes.

Meanwhile, California's burning faster than my Amex Cobalt limit. Rebuilding needs 10,000 to 20,000 truckloads of lumber. Stack that on top of our 3.8 million home shortage, and you've got a recipe for astronomical prices.

Speaking of prices - lumber just hit $658.71 per thousand board feet in March 2025. Building costs? Up 34% since December 2020. Translation: Slapping $7,500 to $10,000 extra on every new home's price tag.

For anyone with half a brain cell looking at timber stocks, this supply-demand gangbang is setting up established players for a monster run. We're talking companies sitting on fat land holdings and production capacity - they're about to make bank.

Trust me, it's not rocket science. When supply's fucked and demand's mooning, you bet your ass the big boys are gonna print.

Why Timber's About to Make It Rain in 2025

Let's cut through the bullshit and look at why timber stocks are ready to print money faster than JPow's money printer.

Here's the setup:

- North American lumber production just got gutted - 5 billion board feet gone since 2023 (that's 7% of capacity wiped the fuck out)

- Framing lumber's already up 14.9% from last year

- California rebuilding needs 10,000-20,000 truckloads of lumber just to get started

- The Housing Clusterfuck: Zillow's saying we're 4.5 million homes short (up from 4.3M in 2023). Builders are finally getting off their asses with an 11% construction boost coming in 2025.

Here's the cherry on top - interest rates are heading down in 2025. You know what that means? Construction's about to go balls deep.

The Money Plays: Two tickers are giving me a raging bull boner: Weyerhaeuser (WY) and PotlatchDeltic (PCH). These bastards are sitting on mountains of timberland when wood's worth more than gold. With Canada getting slapped with double tariffs (from 14.5%), these domestic players are about to feast.

Both companies spent 2023-2024 cutting fat like your mom on New Year's resolution. Now they're lean, mean, wood-printing machines ready to ride lumber prices to the moon.

Bottom Line: By 2028, log prices are projected to hit $975 per MBF - higher than the 2022 peak. Translation: These timber plays aren't just a quick pump - they're setting up for a long-term face ripper.

Trust me, when supply's fucked and demand's mooning, you want exposure to the companies holding all the wood.

Weyerhaeuser (WY): The Absolute Unit of Lumber

After a deep dive into timber plays that'll actually make you money, Weyerhaeuser (WY) stands out like a redwood in a field of saplings. These fuckers own 10.4 million acres of American timberland - that's bigger than some states, and it's exactly what you want when lumber's scarcer than common sense in Congress.

Here's why WY's got me harder than their hardwoods:

- The OG Wood Baron: Been in the game since 1900, controlling everything from seedling to lumber yard. While other companies are playing checkers, WY's playing 4D chess - "maximizing value of every acre" and adapting faster than your ex finding your credit card.

- Production Monster: Not just some land-sitting boomer stock - they're "one of North America's largest wood product manufacturers". Mills, nurseries, distribution centers - they've got more wood moving than a Vegas pool party.

The Numbers Don't Lie:

- Earnings growth projected at 32.52% yearly

- Revenue hitting $7.12 billion in 2024

- Wall Street's got a "Moderate Buy" rating with $35.00 target

- Some analysts seeing $38.00 (that's 18.46% upside for you smooth brains)

Money Printer Goes BRRR: Just jacked their quarterly dividend 5% higher. These chads are committed to throwing 75-80% of their Adjusted Funds back at shareholders. Translation: While you're getting splinters, they're printing tendies.

Trust me, when America needs wood (and boy does it need wood), WY's gonna be there with a forest of green dildos pointing straight up.

PotlatchDeltic (PCH): The Sleeper Pick That'll Make You Rich

Listen up degenerates - while everyone's jerking off to WY, I've found a hidden fucking gem. PotlatchDeltic (PCH) is sitting on 2.1 million acres across seven states, and Wall Street's too busy watching NVDA to notice this money printer.

Check This Big Brain Play: These mad lads just pulled the ultimate flip:

- Sold 34,100 acres of baby trees for $57M ($1,700/acre)

- Bought 16,000 acres of thicc mature timber for $31M ($1,900/acre)

That's like trading in your beat-up Honda for a Tesla and keeping change for tendies.

The Real Estate Hustle: PCH's been selling rural land at $2,923 per acre - that's like getting OnlyFans money for Farmville land. They're finding value faster than your wife's boyfriend finds your weak spots.

The Money Machine: Their Waldo, Arkansas sawmill upgrade is about to go nuclear:

- 30% cost reduction

- 6% better recovery

- 42.5% more capacity

Translation: $25M extra EBITDA annually. That's not a typo, that's straight printer go BRRR territory.

The Numbers Are Fucking Insane:

- Analysts projecting earnings growth as high as 91%

- Crushing market (24.08%) averages

- Trading below $53 enterprise value

Wall Street's finally waking up - slapped a "Strong Buy" rating on this bad boy. Price targets $44-$53 but trust me, that's conservative as my grandma's church outfit.

Bottom Line: While smooth brains chase overvalued tech stocks, PCH is sitting here with a forest full of money trees ready to harvest. This isn't just another timber play - it's a fucking gold mine disguised as a lumber yard.

Not financial advice, but you'd be dumber than a termite-infested stump to ignore this one.

The Bottom Line: Two Ways to Print Money from America's Wood Crisis

After diving balls deep into lumber stocks for the past week, here's my take: We're looking at a perfect fucking storm that'll make timber investors rich.

Let me break this down one last time:

The OG Wood Baron (WY):

- 10.4M acres of prime American timber

- Vertically integrated money printer

- 32.52% projected earnings growth

- Boomer-friendly dividends

The Sleeper Pick (PCH):

- 2.1M acres of pure profit potential

- Management team playing 4D chess

- 93.53% earnings growth incoming

- Trading cheaper than lumber scraps

Trust me, this setup is juicier than a steroid-pumped bodybuilder. Canada's getting cucked with tariffs, America needs houses like I need coffee in the morning, and these two chad companies are sitting on literal forests of money.

You've got two plays here: 1.) Go balls deep in the industry titan (WY) 2.) Load up on the undervalued beast (PCH) 3.) Be a gigachad and grab both

Not financial advice - I eat crayons and sometimes forget which end of the saw to hold. But when supply's fucked and demand's mooning, you bet your ass I'm backing the companies holding all the wood.

Disclaimer: Do your own DD, we don't own stock in either but may buy or sell in the open market at any given time.

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